Natural history of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study.

Previous studies on the natural history of long-COVID have been few and selective. Without comparison groups, disease progression cannot be differentiated from symptoms originating from other causes. The Long-COVID in Scotland Study (Long-CISS) is a Scotland-wide, general population cohort of adults who had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection matched to PCR-negative adults. Serial, self-completed, online questionnaires collected information on pre-existing health conditions and current health six, 12 and 18 months after index test. Of those with previous symptomatic infection, 35% reported persistent incomplete/no recovery, 12% improvement and 12% deterioration. At six and 12 months, one or more symptom was reported by 71.5% and 70.7% respectively of those previously infected, compared with 53.5% and 56.5% of those never infected. Altered taste, smell and confusion improved over time compared to the never infected group and adjusted for confounders. Conversely, late onset dry and productive cough, and hearing problems were more likely following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Adjudicated myocarditis and multisystem illness trajectory in healthcare workers post-COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the associations of healthcare worker status with multisystem illness trajectory in hospitalised post-COVID-19 individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-eight patients were evaluated 28-60 days after the last episode of hospital care. Thirty-six (21%) were healthcare workers. Compared with non-healthcare workers, healthcare workers were of similar age (51.3 (8.7) years vs 55.0 (12.4) years; p=0.09) more often women (26 (72%) vs 48 (38%); p<0.01) and had lower 10-year cardiovascular risk (%) (8.1 (7.9) vs 15.0 (11.5); p<0.01) and Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium in-hospital mortality risk (7.3 (10.2) vs 12.7 (9.8); p<0.01). Healthcare worker status associated with less acute inflammation (peak C reactive protein 48 mg/L (IQR: 14-165) vs 112 mg/L (52-181)), milder illness reflected by WHO clinical severity score distribution (p=0.04) and shorter duration of admission (4 days (IQR: 2-6) vs 6 days (3-12)).In adjusted multivariate logistic regression analysis, healthcare worker status associated with a binary classification (probable/very likely vs not present/unlikely) of adjudicated myocarditis (OR: 2.99; 95% CI (1.01 to 8.89) by 28-60 days postdischarge).After a mean (SD, range) duration of follow-up after hospital discharge of 450 (88) days (range 290, 627 days), fewer healthcare workers died or were rehospitalised (1 (3%) vs 22 (17%); p=0.038) and secondary care referrals for post-COVID-19 syndrome were common (42%) and similar to non-healthcare workers (38%; p=0.934). CONCLUSION: Healthcare worker status was independently associated with the likelihood of adjudicated myocarditis, despite better antecedent health. Two in five healthcare workers had a secondary care referral for post-COVID-19 syndrome. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04403607.

Outcomes among confirmed cases and a matched comparison group in the Long-COVID in Scotland study.

With increasing numbers infected by SARS-CoV-2, understanding long-COVID is essential to inform health and social care support. A Scottish population cohort of 33,281 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 62,957 never-infected individuals were followed-up via 6, 12 and 18-month questionnaires and linkage to hospitalization and death records. Of the 31,486 symptomatic infections,1,856 (6%) had not recovered and 13,350 (42%) only partially. No recovery was associated with hospitalized infection, age, female sex, deprivation, respiratory disease, depression and multimorbidity. Previous symptomatic infection was associated with poorer quality of life, impairment across all daily activities and 24 persistent symptoms including breathlessness (OR 3.43, 95% CI 3.29-3.58), palpitations (OR 2.51, OR 2.36-2.66), chest pain (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.96-2.23), and confusion (OR 2.92, 95% CI 2.78-3.07). Asymptomatic infection was not associated with adverse outcomes. Vaccination was associated with reduced risk of seven symptoms. Here we describe the nature of long-COVID and the factors associated with it.

Widening or narrowing inequalities? The equity implications of digital tools to support COVID-19 contact tracing: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: As digital tools are increasingly used to support COVID-19 contact tracing, the equity implications must be considered. As part of a study to understand the public's views of digital contact tracing tools developed for the national 'Test and Protect' programme in Scotland, we aimed to explore the views of groups often excluded from such discussions. This paper reports on their views about the potential for contact tracing to exacerbate inequalities. METHODS: A qualitative study was carried out; interviews were conducted with key informants from organizations supporting people in marginalized situations, followed by interviews and focus groups with people recruited from these groups. Participants included, or represented, minority ethnic groups, asylum seekers and refugees and those experiencing multiple disadvantage including severe and enduring poverty. RESULTS: A total of 42 people participated: 13 key informants and 29 members of the public. While public participants were supportive of contact tracing, key informants raised concerns. Both sets of participants spoke about how contact tracing, and its associated digital tools, might increase inequalities. Barriers included finances (inability to afford smartphones or the data to ensure access to the internet); language (digital tools were available only in English and required a degree of literacy, even for English speakers); and trust (many marginalized groups distrusted statutory organizations and there were concerns that data may be passed to other organizations). One strength was that NHS Scotland, the data guardian, is seen as a generally trustworthy organization. Poverty was recognized as a barrier to people's ability to self-isolate. Some participants were concerned about giving contact details of individuals who might struggle to self-isolate for financial reasons. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of contact tracing and associated digital tools on marginalized populations needs careful monitoring. This should include the contact tracing process and the ability of people to self-isolate. Regular clear messaging from trusted groups and community members could help maintain trust and participation in the programme. PATIENT AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Our patient and public involvement coapplicant, L. L., was involved in all aspects of the study including coauthorship. Interim results were presented to our local Public and Patient Involvement and Engagement Group, who commented on interpretation and made suggestions about further recruitment.

A multisystem, cardio-renal investigation of post-COVID-19 illness.

The pathophysiology and trajectory of post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome is uncertain. To clarify multisystem involvement, we undertook a prospective cohort study including patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19 (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04403607 ). Serial blood biomarkers, digital electrocardiography and patient-reported outcome measures were obtained in-hospital and at 28-60 days post-discharge when multisystem imaging using chest computed tomography with pulmonary and coronary angiography and cardio-renal magnetic resonance imaging was also obtained. Longer-term clinical outcomes were assessed using electronic health records. Compared to controls (n = 29), at 28-60 days post-discharge, people with COVID-19 (n = 159; mean age, 55 years; 43% female) had persisting evidence of cardio-renal involvement and hemostasis pathway activation. The adjudicated likelihood of myocarditis was 'very likely' in 21 (13%) patients, 'probable' in 65 (41%) patients, 'unlikely' in 56 (35%) patients and 'not present' in 17 (11%) patients. At 28-60 days post-discharge, COVID-19 was associated with worse health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L score 0.77 (0.23) versus 0.87 (0.20)), anxiety and depression (PHQ-4 total score 3.59 (3.71) versus 1.28 (2.67)) and aerobic exercise capacity reflected by predicted maximal oxygen utilization (20.0 (7.6) versus 29.5 (8.0) ml/kg/min) (all P < 0.01). During follow-up (mean, 450 days), 24 (15%) patients and two (7%) controls died or were rehospitalized, and 108 (68%) patients and seven (26%) controls received outpatient secondary care (P = 0.017). The illness trajectory of patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 includes persisting multisystem abnormalities and health impairments that could lead to substantial demand on healthcare services in the future.

Assistive technologies for home NIV in patients with COPD: feasibility and positive experience with remote-monitoring and volume-assured auto-EPAP NIV mode.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with persistent hypercapnic respiratory failure are improved by long-term home non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Provision of home-NIV presents clinical and service challenges. The aim of this study was to evaluate outcomes of home-NIV in hypercapnic patients with COPD who had been set-up at our centre using remote-monitoring and iVAPS-autoEPAP NIV mode (Lumis device, ResMed). METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a data set of 46 patients with COPD who commenced remote-monitored home-NIV (AirView, ResMed) between February 2017 and January 2018. Events including time to readmission or death at 12 months were compared with a retrospectively identified cohort of 27 patients with hypercapnic COPD who had not been referred for consideration of home-NIV. RESULTS: The median time to readmission or death was significantly prolonged in patients who commenced home-NIV (median 160 days, 95% CI 69.38 to 250.63) versus the comparison cohort (66 days, 95% CI 21.9 to 110.1; p<0.01). Average time to hospital readmission was 221 days (95% CI, 47.77 to 394.23) and 70 days (95% CI, 55.31 to 84.69; p<0.05), respectively. Median decrease in bicarbonate level of 4.9 mmol/L (p<0.0151) and daytime partial pressure of carbon dioxide 2.2 kPa (p<0.032) in home-NIV patients with no required increase in nurse home visits is compatible with effectiveness of this service model. Median reduction of 14 occupied bed days per annum was observed per patient who continued home-NIV throughout the study period (N=32). CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the feasibility and provide initial utility data for a technology-assisted service model for the provision of home-NIV therapy for patients with COPD.

Development and prospective validation of COVID-19 chest X-ray screening model for patients attending emergency departments.

Chest X-rays (CXRs) are the first-line investigation in patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with dyspnoea and are a valuable adjunct to clinical management of COVID-19 associated lung disease. Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to facilitate rapid triage of CXRs for further patient testing and/or isolation. In this work we develop an AI algorithm, CovIx, to differentiate normal, abnormal, non-COVID-19 pneumonia, and COVID-19 CXRs using a multicentre cohort of 293,143 CXRs. The algorithm is prospectively validated in 3289 CXRs acquired from patients presenting to ED with symptoms of COVID-19 across four sites in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde. CovIx achieves area under receiver operating characteristic curve for COVID-19 of 0.86, with sensitivity and F1-score up to 0.83 and 0.71 respectively, and performs on-par with four board-certified radiologists. AI-based algorithms can identify CXRs with COVID-19 associated pneumonia, as well as distinguish non-COVID pneumonias in symptomatic patients presenting to ED. Pre-trained models and inference scripts are freely available at https://github.com/beringresearch/bravecx-covid .

Long Covid in adults discharged from UK hospitals after Covid-19: A prospective, multicentre cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol.

BACKGROUND: This study sought to establish the long-term effects of Covid-19 following hospitalisation. METHODS: 327 hospitalised participants, with SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited into a prospective multicentre cohort study at least 3 months post-discharge. The primary outcome was self-reported recovery at least ninety days after initial Covid-19 symptom onset. Secondary outcomes included new symptoms, disability (Washington group short scale), breathlessness (MRC Dyspnoea scale) and quality of life (EQ5D-5L). FINDINGS: 55% of participants reported not feeling fully recovered. 93% reported persistent symptoms, with fatigue the most common (83%), followed by breathlessness (54%). 47% reported an increase in MRC dyspnoea scale of at least one grade. New or worse disability was reported by 24% of participants. The EQ5D-5L summary index was significantly worse following acute illness (median difference 0.1 points on a scale of 0 to 1, IQR: -0.2 to 0.0). Females under the age of 50 years were five times less likely to report feeling recovered (adjusted OR 5.09, 95% CI 1.64 to 15.74), were more likely to have greater disability (adjusted OR 4.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 15.94), twice as likely to report worse fatigue (adjusted OR 2.06, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.31) and seven times more likely to become more breathless (adjusted OR 7.15, 95% CI 2.24 to 22.83) than men of the same age. INTERPRETATION: Survivors of Covid-19 experienced long-term symptoms, new disability, increased breathlessness, and reduced quality of life. These findings were present in young, previously healthy working age adults, and were most common in younger females. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of COVID-19 outcomes among shielded and non-shielded populations.

Many western countries used shielding (extended self-isolation) of people presumed to be at high-risk from COVID-19 to protect them and reduce healthcare demand. To investigate the effectiveness of this strategy, we linked family practitioner, prescribing, laboratory, hospital and death records and compared COVID-19 outcomes among shielded and non-shielded individuals in the West of Scotland. Of the 1.3 million population, 27,747 (2.03%) were advised to shield, and 353,085 (26.85%) were classified a priori as moderate risk. COVID-19 testing was more common in the shielded (7.01%) and moderate risk (2.03%) groups, than low risk (0.73%). Referent to low-risk, the shielded group had higher confirmed infections (RR 8.45, 95% 7.44-9.59), case-fatality (RR 5.62, 95% CI 4.47-7.07) and population mortality (RR 57.56, 95% 44.06-75.19). The moderate-risk had intermediate confirmed infections (RR 4.11, 95% CI 3.82-4.42) and population mortality (RR 25.41, 95% CI 20.36-31.71) but, due to their higher prevalence, made the largest contribution to deaths (PAF 75.30%). Age ≥ 70 years accounted for 49.55% of deaths. In conclusion, in spite of the shielding strategy, high risk individuals were at increased risk of death. Furthermore, to be effective as a population strategy, shielding criteria would have needed to be widely expanded to include other criteria, such as the elderly.

Bubble concept for sporting tournaments during the COVID-19 pandemic: Football Club World Cup.

OBJECTIVES: To report the person-to-staff transmission of COVID-19 with the implementation of a bubble concept that included testing, hygiene, distancing and monitoring strategies to mitigate risks. METHODS: A prospective case series included all staff on-site involved in the Football Club World Cup. The tournament was conducted within 'bubbles'. All personnel travelling to the tournament were required to be in possession of a negative RT-PCR test within 72 hours of arrival and subjected to a testing schedule during the tournament. Each location was assigned a COVID-19 protocol enforcement officer to ensure adherence to regular testing, hygiene measures, physical distancing and daily symptom reporting (via ScribePro app). RESULTS: The study involved 70 recruited staff with a combined 1321 test days on the symptom checker app. The mean number of days completed on the symptom checker app was 18.87 days (range: 7-28). Of the five questions asked as part of the daily symptom checker, only one was answered positively (0.015%). This individual was isolated, assessed within 20 min and tested. The initial diagnosis was likely a non-COVID-19-related viral illness. Further testing returned three negative tests during the remainder of the tournament. CONCLUSIONS: There was no person-to-staff transmission of COVID-19 during the tournament within our sample. The organisation of a sporting tournament during the COVID-19 pandemic is possible with risk mitigation strategies. These strategies include setting up a bubble with regular testing, hygiene measures, physical distancing and daily symptom reporting.

What is the recovery rate and risk of long-term consequences following a diagnosis of COVID-19? A harmonised, global longitudinal observational study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Very little is known about possible clinical sequelae that may persist after resolution of acute COVID-19. A recent longitudinal cohort from Italy including 143 patients followed up after hospitalisation with COVID-19 reported that 87% had at least one ongoing symptom at 60-day follow-up. Early indications suggest that patients with COVID-19 may need even more psychological support than typical intensive care unit patients. The assessment of risk factors for longer term consequences requires a longitudinal study linked to data on pre-existing conditions and care received during the acute phase of illness. The primary aim of this study is to characterise physical and psychosocial sequelae in patients post-COVID-19 hospital discharge. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is an international open-access prospective, observational multisite study. This protocol is linked with the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) and the WHO's Clinical Characterisation Protocol, which includes patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 during hospitalisation. This protocol will follow-up a subset of patients with confirmed COVID-19 using standardised surveys to measure longer term physical and psychosocial sequelae. The data will be linked with the acute phase data. Statistical analyses will be undertaken to characterise groups most likely to be affected by sequelae of COVID-19. The open-access follow-up survey can be used as a data collection tool by other follow-up studies, to facilitate data harmonisation and to identify subsets of patients for further in-depth follow-up. The outcomes of this study will inform strategies to prevent long-term consequences; inform clinical management, interventional studies, rehabilitation and public health management to reduce overall morbidity; and improve long-term outcomes of COVID-19. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol and survey are open access to enable low-resourced sites to join the study to facilitate global standardised, longitudinal data collection. Ethical approval has been given by sites in Colombia, Ghana, Italy, Norway, Russia, the UK and South Africa. New sites are welcome to join this collaborative study at any time. Sites interested in adopting the protocol as it is or in an adapted version are responsible for ensuring that local sponsorship and ethical approvals in place as appropriate. The tools are available on the ISARIC website (www.isaric.org). PROTOCOL REGISTRATION NUMBER: osf.io/c5rw3/ PROTOCOL VERSION: 3 August 2020 EUROQOL ID: 37035.

The Chief Scientist Office Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Imaging in SARS Coronavirus disease-19 (CISCO-19) study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is typically a primary respiratory illness with multisystem involvement. The prevalence and clinical significance of cardiovascular and multisystem involvement in COVID-19 remain unclear. METHODS: This is a prospective, observational, multicentre, longitudinal, cohort study with minimal selection criteria and a near-consecutive approach to screening. Patients who have received hospital care for COVID-19 will be enrolled within 28 days of discharge. Myocardial injury will be diagnosed according to the peak troponin I in relation to the upper reference limit (URL, 99th centile) (Abbott Architect troponin I assay; sex-specific URL, male: >34 ng/L; female: >16 ng/L). Multisystem, multimodality imaging will be undertaken during the convalescent phase at 28 days post-discharge (Visit 2). Imaging of the heart, lung, and kidneys will include multiparametric, stress perfusion, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, and computed tomography coronary angiography. Health and well-being will be assessed in the longer term. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with a diagnosis of myocardial inflammation. CONCLUSION: CISCO-19 will provide detailed insights into cardiovascular and multisystem involvement of COVID-19. Our study will inform the rationale and design of novel therapeutic and management strategies for affected patients. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04403607.